SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 9
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Illinois (16-8, 9-14 ATS) at (11) Wisconsin (18-5, 13-8 ATS)
Illinois takes a four-game winning streak to the Kohl Center in Madison, Wis., for a crucial Big Ten battle with the Badgers.
The Illini scored a hard-fought 78-73 victory over fifth-ranked Michigan State as a 1½-point home underdog Saturday, and they’ve followed up a three-game losing skid with four straight wins (3-1 ATS). Illinois hasn’t had a five-game winning streak all year, and while the Illini have covered the spread in consecutive contests, they haven’t posted three straight ATS wins this season. Illinois is 4-3 SU and ATS in true road games this season, including 3-2 SU and ATS in conference play.
Wisconsin dealt Michigan State its first conference loss of the season on Tuesday, rolling 67-49 as a two-point home favorite, then went to Michigan on Saturday showed no signs of a letdown, rolling 62-44 as a one-point road underdog – the team’s third straight spread-cover. The Badgers have won consecutive games four times since the Big Ten season started, but have yet to win three in a row.
Wisconsin is 13-0 at home this year (4-6 ATS), outscoring opponents by nearly 19 points per game (71.7-52.8) at the Kohl Center. Going back to last season’s 63-50 rout of Illinois, the Badgers have won 18 in a row in Madison (7-8 ATS).
Illinois and Wisconsin are 8-3 in the Big Ten which puts them in a three-way tie with Ohio State for second place in the league standings, one game behind Michigan State and a half-game ahead of Purdue.
Including their 13-point at home victory last year, the Badgers have taken six of the last seven series battles with Illinois (5-1-1 ATS). The host is 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS in the last six meetings, the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four and the SU winner is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine.
Illinois is in ATS slumps of 2-8 after a spread-cover and 2-6 against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin has cashed in eight of its last 11 at home and five of seven after a spread-cover, but the Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last six on Tuesday.
The Illini are on “over” surges of 20-7 overall, 8-3 on the road, 5-1 in Big Ten action, 10-4 after a SU win and 9-1 after a spread-cover. Conversely, Wisconsin is on “under” runs of 21-8 overall, 6-2 at home, 40-18 in conference play, 40-17-1 following a victory and 41-13 after a spread-cover. Also, these teams have stayed under the total in seven of their last 10 clashes overall and four of their last five battles at the Kohl Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WISCONSIN and UNDER
(12) Tennessee (18-4, 9-9-1 ATS) at (22) Vanderbilt (17-5, 11-9 ATS)
Fresh off their most impressive victory in nearly a month, the Volunteers head to Memorial Gym in Nashville looking for a little payback against Vanderbilt in an SEC clash.
Tennessee crushed South Carolina 79-53 as a 9½-point home favorite on Saturday, its first double-digit win since a 26-point rout of Auburn on Jan. 14. The Volunteers have followed up consecutive losses to Georgia (road) and Vanderbilt (home) with three straight wins, and they snapped a four-game ATS slide with Saturday’s easy spread-cover. Bruce Pearl’s squad is 6-3 on the highway this season (4-4-1 ATS), including 2-1 (1-2 ATS) in SEC roadies.
Since upsetting Tennessee 85-76 as a 6½-point road underdog on Jan. 27 – which capped a 10-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) – the Commodores have dropped two of their last three (0-3 ATS). That includes Saturday’s ugly 72-58 loss at Georgia as a four-point road favorite. On the bright side, Vanderbilt is 11-0 at Memorial Gym (5-4 ATS in lined games), including 3-0 in SEC games (1-2 ATS), outscoring visitors by nearly 19 ppg (84.3-65.5). Going back to last season, the Commodores have won 16 in a row at home (9-5 ATS).
Vandy’s win in Knoxville last month was the second time in the last three meetings that the road team prevailed in this rivalry, including Tennessee’s 76-63 rout in Nashville last year as a two-point road chalk. Prior to that contest, the Vols had lost four straight games at Memorial Gym. Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall, 7-2 ATS in its last nine at Vanderbilt and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last nine matchups.
Both teams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall (all within the SEC), and Tennessee is also 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 after a SU defeat. On the other hand, the Vols have cashed in eight of their last 11 on Tuesday and seven of their last 10 against winning teams.
These teams easily topped the total when they squared off last month at Tennessee, ending a 5-0 “under” run in this series. The under is still 5-1 in the last six clashes at Vandy, and the under is on additional runs of 5-1 for the Commodores against winning teams, 20-7 for the Vols overall, 22-8 for the Vols on the road, 7-2 for the Vols against SEC opponents, 6-1 for the Vols on Tuesday, 5-1 for the Vols against winning teams and 18-5 for the Vols after a SU victory.
That said, the over is 5-1 in Vandy’s last six overall (all against SEC competition).
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
(6) Purdue (19-3, 9-12-1 ATS) at (10) Michigan State (19-5, 8-15 ATS)
Two Big Ten rivals going in opposite directions hook up at the Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich., where the host Spartans try to halt their first two-game slide of the season and snap Purdue’s five-game winning streak.
The Boilermakers barely survived at lowly Indiana on Thursday, winning 78-75 and falling way short as a 12½-point road favorite. Purdue has won five in a row, but four of those victories have been by six points or less, and it is 2-3 ATS during the winning streak. And while the Boilermakers have won their last two conference road games after losing the first two, they’re just 1-3 ATS when visiting Big Ten rivals. For the season, they’re 8-2 SU but 3-6-1 ATS in road/neutral-site games.
Michigan State won its first nine Big Ten games for the first time in school history, but then went on the road to Wisconsin and Illinois last week and stumbled in losing 67-49 to the Badgers (as a two-point underdog) and 78-73 to the Illini (as a 1½-point favorite). The Spartans have now failed to cover in four straight games and six of their last seven, all in conference. They still lead the Big Ten with a 9-2 record, a game ahead of Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio State.
Michigan State has won 18 straight games at the Breslin Center, including 10 in a row in Big Ten action (6-4 ATS). This year, the Spartans are 13-0 at home but just 6-6 ATS despite outscoring visitors by 16 ppg (77-61).
The home team has taken six straight meetings in this rivalry (4-2 ATS), and that includes two contests last year, with Purdue winning 72-54 as a 2½-point chalk and the Spartans rolling 62-51 as a 5½-point favorite. With that latter result, Michigan State ended an 0-5 ATS slide against the Boilermakers. The chalk has cashed in three straight meetings and six of the last eight.
Purdue is in ATS funks of 2-6 overall (all vs. Big Ten foes), 1-4 on the road, 1-5 against opponents with a winning record and 1-4 after a SU win, while the Spartans’ ATS slumps include 1-6 overall, 2-5 at home and 5-19-2 on Tuesday. However, Michigan State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when coming off a loss.
These defensive-minded rivals have stayed below the posted total in 13 of their last 16 head-to-head battles (3-0 “under” last three), including six of the last seven in East Lansing. Furthermore, Michigan State is on “under” runs of 7-3 overall, 16-6 in Big Ten play, 19-7 on Tuesday and 5-1 versus winning teams, and Purdue has stayed low in 13 of its last 19 against winning squads. However, the over has hit in all four of the Boilermakers’ conference road games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Atlanta (32-17, 31-18 ATS) at Memphis (26-24, 27-22-1 ATS)
The slumping Grizzlies look to get back on track when they welcome the Hawks to the FedEx Forum.
Atlanta hits the road after a pair of home wins last week over the Clippers (103-97 as a 9½-point favorite on Wednesday) and Bulls (91-81 as an eight-point chalk on Friday). Despite those two victories, the Hawks have split their last six contests (2-4 ATS), going 0-3 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. One of the top-scoring teams in the NBA, Atlanta has been held to 103 points or fewer in eight straight games.
Memphis has followed up a 14-4 run by losing five of its last six SU and ATS, including the last three in a row. Ironically, the lone victory came against the defending champion Lakers last Monday (95-93 as a one-point underdog). Since then, the Grizzlies have fallen to the Cavaliers on the road (105-89), the Rockets at home (101-83) and the TWolves on the road (109-102). Like the Hawks, Memphis is struggling offensively, scoring 100 points or less in six of its last eight games (tallying exactly 102 points in the other two contests).
While the Hawks have one of the best home records in the league at 21-5, they’re a sub-.500 road team (12-13 SU, 13-10 ATS). On the flip side, Memphis is 18-7 in its building (15-9-1 ATS), including 17-5 in the last 22 (14-7-1 ATS).
Atlanta is looking to sweep this season series, having taken down the Grizzlies 110-97 as a 9½-point home favorite back on Dec. 16. The Hawks are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings, with the one loss coming in last year’s trip to Memphis (98-90 Grizzlies victory as a 7½-point favorite). The chalk has won and covered in each of the last five meetings, and the SU winner is 8-0 ATS in the last eight.
The Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the Western Conference, but they’ve covered in four of five following a layoff of three or more days. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight after a SU defeat and 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 on Tuesday, but from there the Grizzlies are on positive pointspread streaks of 20-9-1 at home, 21-7-1 against Eastern Conference opponents and 6-1-1 versus teams from the Southeast Division.
Atlanta is on “under” rolls of 9-1-1 after a SU win, 6-1-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 on Tuesday and 3-1-1 against the Southwest Division. The Grizzlies have also stayed low in four of their last five at home, 18 of their last 26 following two days of rest and four in a row against the Eastern Conference. However, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS and UNDER
Dallas (32-19, 21-30 ATS) at Denver (34-17, 23-25-3 ATS)
The ailing Nuggets kick off a brief two-game homestand when they welcome the struggling Mavericks to the Pepsi Center for a Western Conference clash.
Dallas was in Golden State last night, where it rallied for a 127-117 victory as a four-point road underdog, outscoring the Warriors 37-19 in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks are still just 2-4 SU in their last six overall, and they snapped a six-game ATS losing skid Monday but are still 2-8 ATS in their last 10 (2-4 ATS on the road). Dallas’ offense is in fine form, tallying 106 points or more in seven of the last nine games, but the Mavs’ last six opponents have gone over the century mark, putting up 110.1 ppg.
Denver took the court at Utah on Saturday without All-Stars Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups (both dealing with injured ankles), and the result was predictable: a 116-106 loss, pushing as a 10-point road underdog. Since peeling off eight straight wins from Jan. 11-Jan. 27, the Nuggets have split their last six games (2-3-2 ATS). George Karl’s club is 10-17-3 ATS in its last 30 games, but on the bright side it hasn’t suffered consecutive SU defeats since Dec. 27-28, a stretch of 19 contests.
The Mavericks have a solid road mark at 17-10 (16-11 ATS), but despite Monday’s win in Golden State, it has lost three of its last five on the highway. Denver is 22-4 at the Pepsi Center, but only 13-12-1 ATS.
The Nuggets needed just five games to sweep Dallas out of the playoffs last spring, but the Mavericks are one of just four teams to score a victory in Denver this season, winning 104-96 on Dec. 27. Dallas covered as a 5½-point road underdog, ending a six-game ATS slump in this rivalry. Still, the Nuggets are 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 series meetings, and going back further they’ve cashed in 12 of the last 14 clashes overall and six of eight in Denver. Also, the SU winner has gotten the money in nine of the last 11 battles.
Dallas, which has the third-worst pointspread mark in the league, is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games overall and is in further ATS funks of 2-4 on the highway, 0-5 both on Tuesday, against the Northwest Division and 2-5 when playing on consecutive nights. The Nuggets are on pointspread tears of 16-5 against the Southwest Division and 3-0-1 against winning teams, but they’re 5-12-3 ATS in their past 20 games against Western Conference foes.
The under is 5-1 in Denver’s last six against the Southwest Division. From there, though, the over is on upticks of 6-2 for Dallas overall, 4-1 for Dallas against teams from the Southwest Division, 5-2 for the Nuggets at home, 4-1 for the Nuggets on Tuesday and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams dating to last year’s playoff series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
Oklahoma City (29-21, 31-19 ATS) at Portland (30-23, 28-24-1 ATS)
The red-hot Thunder go for a season-best sixth consecutive win when it concludes a three-game road trip with a stop at the Rose Garden to battle the Blazers.
Oklahoma City disposed of Golden State 104-95 as a 3½-point road chalk on Saturday, the team’s third straight spread-cover, all as a small favorite (3½ points or less). Kevin Durant continued his stellar play with 29 points, four assists and eight rebounds, and he’s now scored more than 25 points in 24 straight games.
Portland caught a break on Saturday when the Lakers came to town and Kobe Bryant sat out with an injured ankle, but the Blazers failed to take advantage, losing 99-82 as a 3 ½-point home underdog. All-Star point guard Brandon Roy (hamstring) missed his 10th straight game and has played just once (18 minutes) in the team’s last 13 contests. Without Roy, who will be sidelined at least through the All-Star break, Portland is 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games, including 2-3 SU and ATS at home. The SU winner is 23-4-1 ATS in games played at the Rose Garden year, including 11-0 ATS in the last 11.
These teams met way back in the first week of the season, with the Blazers wining 83-74 in Oklahoma City as a three-point road underdog on Nov. 1. Portland is on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll in this series after going 0-4 ATS in the previous four. Also, the home team is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings, with the Blazers favored in all 10. Oklahoma City has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to Portland.
The Thunder are riding a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 4-1 overall, 19-7 on the road, 34-16-1 on Tuesday, 7-1 after a two days of rest and 8-0 against winning teams. Portland has cashed in nine of its last 13 division contests, seven of its last nine after a defeat and five of its last six following a non-cover.
The under has been the play in eight of the last nine Thunder-Blazers battles, and the under is 6-2 in Portland’s last eight Tuesday outings, 3-0-1 in its last four against winning teams, 7-1-1 in Oklahoma City’s last nine against winning teams and 4-0 in its last four against division rivals. On the flip side, the over is 8-0-1 in the Thunder’s last nine Tuesday games, while the Blazers carry “over” trends of 7-3 overall, 9-2 after a SU loss, 8-2 versus the Western Conference and 4-0 against the Northwest Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
